Guatemala’s democracy still needs international support

In Guatemala, it can be easy to let the trees hide the forest. They include convoluted legal procedures, ever-fracturing and multiplying political parties, baseless criminal accusations, and the labyrinthine connections between politicians.

The big picture, however, is this: the same actors who tried to prevent President Bernardo Arévalo from taking office in 2023 are ramping up efforts to oust him. The risk to democracy and human rights in Guatemala needs to be taken seriously. Attorney General Consuelo Porras has already asked the Supreme Court more than 10 times to lift Arévalo’s presidential immunity, so that he can be investigated in Congress for a range of alleged crimes. Such steps would be taken as signs of a healthy democratic system if they were based on good-faith concerns that the president had engaged in corruption or abuse of power. Unfortunately, Porras’ investigations are based on spurious, politically motivated allegations. The attorney general has also gone after officials in Arévalo’s government, as well as people who have been pushing for democratic reforms. In April, prosecutors secured the arrest of two Indigenous leaders, Hector Chaclán and Luis Pacheco, who was also Arévalo’s deputy minister of sustainable development. They are accused of “terrorism” and “sedition” in connection with their participation in the peaceful 2023 protests that helped stop Porras’ attempt to overturn the elections.

The timing is critical. Next year, Guatemalan authorities are scheduled to elect a new attorney general and new members of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and Constitutional Court. The president and Congress play an important role in these processes and the appointments are critical to hopes of progress in bolstering the rule of law. The European Union has expressed its “deep concern” about the “misuse of legal and procedural measures targeting elected officials” in Guatemala. Latin American governments, which played an important role in protecting democracy in 2023, should also speak up and make sure that the Permanent Council of the Organization of American States (OAS) follows the situation in Guatemala closely.

When he visited Guatemala in February, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio praised President Arévalo’s “commitment to maintain and defend democracy and the stability of institutions.” He also warned that “businesses are not going to invest in a country where there is a coup.”

Yet the State Department and the Trump administration have since said nothing. This silence risks being interpreted as disinterest or even tacit acceptance of the very threats Rubio was alluding to. If a commitment to democracy in Guatemala isn’t enough to persuade the U.S. government to oppose efforts to undermine it, its own interests certainly should. Ousting Arévalo would most likely bring about instability in Guatemala that could trigger new waves of migration despite the current difficulty of even crossing the U.S. border.

Arévalo has been a close U.S. ally. Officials trying to oust him may well be offering similar support to Washington, on issues ranging from migration to China. But there’s something they cannot credibly deliver: dismantling organized crime.

Fighting organized crime requires cracking down on corrupt practices that allow cartels and gangs to bribe their way through the country, operating brazenly and with impunity. This is an important part of Arévalo’s agenda—and precisely why many want him out. His administration has achieved some notable arrests, including of the leader of Los Huistas, whose extradition the U.S. embassy in Guatemala has been described as “the most important in decades.”

In addition to expressing concern, the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union, which have imposed targeted sanctions against Attorney General Porras and other officials, should maintain and consider expanding these sanctions to other officials responsible for violating human rights and undermining the rule of law.

President Arévalo should also act. Guatemalan law doesn’t allow him to unilaterally dismiss the attorney general. But there’s more he can do to protect fundamental rights and democratic institutions. He should push to investigate allegations of corruption behind court rulings and consider invoking a constitutional provision that allows officials to dismiss orders, such as arrest warrants, that are “manifestly illegal or that imply the commission of a crime.”

His government also needs to prepare a strategy for the appointment of a new attorney general next year. Under Porras, politically motivated prosecutions have thrived while fewer than nine percent of criminal investigations have led to an indictment. Appointing a truly independent attorney general could help address long-standing impunity, bolster the fight against organized crime, and help rebuild the rule of law.

Critically, President Arévalo should also act to show Guatemalans that the democracy many of them defended in 2023 can deliver. His government should speed up the implementation of its health, education and infrastructure projects that could help provide much needed development in rural areas in Guatemala where mostly Indigenous people are deprived of their economic rights. Introducing a water law that helps guarantee the human rights to water and sanitation would be a critical first step.

Guatemala still has an opportunity to lay the groundwork for the change – the reconstruction of rule of law, the dismantling of organized crime, and the creation of a more inclusive economy – that Guatemalans urgently need. We cannot afford to let it slip away.

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